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Phoenix Metropolitan Area Real Estate Statistics - January 2010

What is happening with the real estate market in the Phoenix metropolitan area? What changed in January 2010?

[click on the charts to expand]

1) SALES: January 2010’s sales of 5,789 were much better than January 2009’s 4,736 sales and even better than January 2008’s 2,907 sales.  That’s 22% more sales this January than last January!  85.6% of the sales in January were homes, 12.5% were condos, and 1.9% were manufactured housing.
This was the second highest January sales month ever.  January 2005 remains #1.

13.95% of the Phoenix metro area MLS listings sold in January, much better than January 2009 (which was a weak 8.84%); January 2008 was 5%!  15% of the home listings sold in January; 10% of the condos sold; 9% of manufactured homes sold. Bank-owned foreclosure properties accounted for 43.2% of the sales in January 2010, the same as last month; a year ago, 65% of the sales were bank-owned. 
43% of the total sales in January 2010 were cash.  31% of the sales were with FHA or VA financing.

2) SALES PRICE: The average sales price in January 2010 dropped $1,762 to $175,710.  It’s still 8% less than January 2009’s $180,383 average.  The good news is that this percent difference (2010 vs. 2009) is decreasing.  We should see a positive percentage showing up by April 2010.

The median sales price in January 2010 decreased to $124,900.  This was 6.6% less than the median sold price of $130,000 in January 2009.  The number of cash buyers stayed high in January, which might account for a higher number of low priced homes skewing the median.  The Phoenix metropolitan area real estate market bottomed out in early April.

77% of the sales in January 2010 were below $200,000, 84% under $250,000, 92% under $350,000, and 96% under $500,000.

3) INVENTORY: Did the absorption rate go down (the # of months’ inventory available for sale)? The inventory of homes in January 2010 increased to 7.2 months.  It was much better than January 2009’s absorption rate of 11 months and half that of January 2008 (15 months).  A balanced buyer-seller market is six months.  The absorption rate in January 2010: 6.7 months for homes, 10 months for condos, and 11.5 months for manufactured homes.  Therefore, it is a balanced market for homes in the Phoenix metropolitan area.

4) NEW MLS LISTINGS: In January 2010, the number of new listings was 13,148, which was slightly less than January 2009’s 13,756 new listings.  Inventory increased to 41,506 active listings, normal for new year as sellers wait until the holiday season is over before selling.  Currently there are 35,400 active listings, about 16,000 less than last year.

5) AVERAGE DAYS ON MARKET:  Phoenix area homes took a little longer to sell this January at 74 days.  Condos took 94 days in January 2010.

6) SALES PRICE VERSUS LIST PRICE: The percent of $$$ that sellers keep (sales price divided by list price) in January 2010 was 95.5%, which was better than January 2009’s 94%.  A normal market has sellers keeping 97.5% of their final list price.

7) PENDING SALES: Pending sales are a great indicator of future sales.  Foreclosure and short sale listings are leading the way with pending sales.  The pending sales numbers were very strong in January 2010, reaching better levels than in all of 2008, 2007, and 2006.  Pending sales in February are tracking very strong at 12,350 (better than 9,968 a year ago this time). When you add in the contingency contracts, the current combined number of properties under contract is 19,036.  We are tracking very close to September 2009 when we had a record number of over 20,000 properties under contract (pending & contingency).  Short sales make up 52% of the properties under contract, which skews the numbers (looks good, but doesn’t count if they don’t convert to actual sales).

8) PRICE PER SQUARE FOOT: It dropped by $1 to $91 per square foot in January 2010, which is $2 less than January 2009.  March 2009 was the bottom of the market for price per square foot. Check out the chart!

9) VACANT HOMES:  An unprecedented number of Phoenix metro area MLS active listings still are vacant.  Sold homes have an even higher number of vacancies.  Vacant properties accounted for 77.6% of all properties sold in January, a slight uptick ending ten months of decline.  The normal is under 40%, however.  The vacancy rate of sold properties in January 2009 was 87%!

10) ASKING PRICE VERSUS SOLD PRICE:  Is there any difference between asking prices and sold prices?  Yes.  The average new list price in January 2010 was $239,599. This was $67,400 less than January 2009’s average new list price.

The median new list price in January 2010 was $145,000.  The median new list price was $25,000 less than from January 2009.  Again, it’s evidence of the predominance of lower-priced foreclosure and short sale listings.

11) SHORT SALES: Almost 14% of short sales listings sold in January 2010, three times better than January 2009’s 4.4% success rate.  Short sales have had a bad reputation as offering false hope to sellers and creating frustration for buyers. They control 26% of the active listings and 52% of the properties under contract.  Most short sale sellers have to wait 3-4 months before hearing a yes or no from their bank.  1,256 properties sold via short sale in January 2010 versus only 442 in January 2009 and only 54 in January 2008. The chart below compares short sale and all sale success rates.